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The Certainty Scale
A dial with six positions, set deliberately.
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Six positions. A hand choosing one.
Learner selects a modal that matches the strength of the evidence they have, across the full range from may to will.
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Six sentences, placed on one scale.
The policy will reduce congestion. How sure does this writer sound?
The scale, matching it to evidence, and one false distinction.
will a promise
should expected
is likely to probable
may possible
might possible
could possible, or
has the capacity
A dial with six positions, set deliberately.
Six positions. A hand choosing one.
Eight kinds of evidence, matched to what each supports.
Terms
Definitions
Eight claims with their evidence stated. Two accept more than one.
Four cities measured a fifth fewer journeys within two years. The charge reduce traffic.
There is a clear mechanism and one supporting study. Free transport raise usage among low-paid commuters.
A plausible mechanism, and no data. Longer school days help working parents.
One anecdote from a friend. Remote work harm junior training.
It cannot be otherwise: the fares fund a third of maintenance. Abolishing fares leave a funding gap.
Expert opinion points one way; no measurement exists. Capping rents reduce the supply of new housing.
A mechanism that exists but may not operate in this city. The scheme work here as it did in Stockholm.
A reason to raise it, and nothing more. The reform have contributed to the fall in applications.
Three claims at three certainty levels, each with its evidence.
Topic: charging drivers to enter city centres.
Write three sentences at three different points on the scale.
After each one, in brackets, name the evidence you actually have for it — a finding, a mechanism, a precedent, or nothing but a reason to raise it.
The modal has to match the bracket.
Three lines.