Imagine, you're a product manager responsible for deciding the technology stack for your organization's new project. How do you ensure that the technologies you choose will stand the test of time and not become obsolete before the project even kicks off? Or think about an investor deciding which trends and businesses to invest in, what model do they use to predict if a product will withstand the changing dynamics of the market? Here's where an understanding of the Lindy Effect becomes essential.
The Lindy Effect is a concept that the future life expectancy of certain non-perishable things like technology or an idea is proportional to their current age. In simpler terms, the longer something non-perishable has been around, the longer it can be expected to be around in the future.
In a rapidly changing world, it becomes crucial for professionals to predict the longevity and relevance of trends, technologies, or ideas. The Lindy Effect provides a framework to estimate the survival chances of these non-perishable entities, thereby helping in informed decision-making in tech selection, investment planning, product strategy, and more.
The Lindy Effect suggests that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy. For example, a technology that has been around for ten years has a higher chance of surviving the next ten years than a newer technology that has been around for only two years.
Suppose you're the product manager we mentioned earlier. You need to decide whether to use a new bleeding-edge programming language that's been around for two years or stick to a well-established language that's been used in the industry for over two decades.
According to the Lindy Effect, the older programming language, due to its long survival, is expected to be around for at least another two decades. In contrast, the newer language, despite its attractive features, only has a "proven track record" for two years. Hence, if the project you're handling is long-term and sustainability is a key factor, it might be safer to stick with the older, more proven technology.
However, it's critical to apply other factors such as the backing of the language by a solid community or organizations, the kind of project you're dealing with, and the team's expertise. The Lindy Effect is a guide, not a hard rule.
The Lindy Effect offers a heuristic to forecast the future lifespan of non-perishable entities like technologies or ideas. It assists professionals to make decisions that are critical to the success and longevity of their projects or investments. Remembering the Lindy Effect helps us reassess the value we assign to newness and makes us pause before wholly embracing something merely because it's novel.